The iPhone 7 is good for Apple, but sells for less than the iPhone 6S

Full quarter following the launch of a new generation of iPhone is historically the strongest of the year for the manufacturer. With the iPhone 7, Apple is benefiting from a rebound in sales of smartphones.
However, the US giant is not expected to match the performance of the iPhone 6S, according to analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of KGI Securities. In one year, shipments of Apple smartphones will be well down, he predicts.

The iPhone 7 Plus boosted by the problems of the Galaxy Note 7

The manufacturer itself also expects a slowdown in sales of smartphones this year. IDC table on its side on a decline of 12% in 2016 to 203,800,000 units. Nevertheless, the commercial launch of the iPhone 7 brings KGI to revise its forecasts upwards.

iPhone quarterly sales since 2007 (millions)

It previously estimated that iPhone 7 shipments  and 7 Plus would fall within a range of 60 to 65 million units. Now they should oscillate between 70 and 75 million. Ming-Chi Kuo explains this trend by different factors.

First, the launch lacked Note 7 Samsung undermined by defective batteries. Apple can also count on the good reception of the iPhone 7 Plus, the PHABLET declination of the iPhone. This would have benefited from a postponement of buyers initially interested in Note 7.

Starting in 28 countries against 12 for the iPhone 6S

The camera of 7 Plus Apple also helps increase sales. Thus, in pre-orders, the iPhone 7 Plus would almost level with the iPhone 7.

A study of KGI, Jet Black model is the most popular in terms of colors, representing 30 to 35% of global pre-orders - and 45 to 50% in China. The 128 GB version would be the most acclaimed option for first time buyers.

But despite this, therefore, Apple should not match its performance in 2016. How then to explain the shortages announced in the early days by the manufacturer? They can not be explained entirely by market demand, says the analyst of KGI.

The latter explains that the Jet Black models are more complex to produce. Apple therefore lacked stock, like 7 Plus. Now, iPhone 7, the manufacturer saw more in 2015 with a launch in 28 countries from day one, against 12 the previous year. This has in part contributed to the shortage announced by Apple.